Key Analytical Tools for Carbon Intensity Assessment
Carbon intensity = total CO₂ emissions ÷ GDP. The key metric for China's climate progress. Lower = cleaner economy per unit of output.
Tools for Measuring Carbon Intensity
🔹 Global Carbon Budget (Global Carbon Project)
Annual assessment of national emissions, carbon budgets, and atmospheric CO₂. Provides the raw data for tracking absolute emissions vs. GDP growth.
- Website: globalcarbonproject.org/gcb
- Methodology: Bottom-up national inventory + atmospheric inversion
- Update frequency: Annual (September)
🔹 Carbon Monitor (Oxford / Global Carbon Project)
Real-time estimates of global CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels and industry, including national breakdowns by sector (power, transport, industry, buildings).
- Website: carbonmonitor.com
- Update frequency: Weekly (fossil fuel), monthly (land use)
- Key feature: Near real-time tracking — critical for policy evaluation
🔹 IEA CO₂ Emissions Database
International Energy Agency's comprehensive emissions database with sectoral breakdowns for every country. Includes power, transport, industry, buildings, and other sectors.
- Website: IEA CO₂ Database
- Update frequency: Quarterly
- Coverage: 100+ countries, all sectors
🔹 China's National Emission Trading System (ETS)
World's largest carbon market by covered emissions. Currently covers only the power sector, with plans to expand to steel, cement, and others. Provides real-time carbon price signals.
- Website: cces.cn
- Coverage: ~50% of China's emissions (power sector)
- Carbon price: ~¥70-100/ton CO₂ (varies by month)
Tools for Tracking GDP and Economic Output
🔹 National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS)
Official source for China's GDP, industrial production, and energy consumption data. Monthly and quarterly releases.
- Website: stats.gov.cn
- Key indicator: Quarter-on-quarter GDP growth, industrial value-added
🔹 World Bank Open Data
International comparison of GDP, energy use per capita, and CO₂ emissions. Useful for benchmarking China against other economies.
- Website: data.worldbank.org
- Key indicators: GDP (current USD), CO₂ emissions (kt), energy intensity
Resources for Understanding China's Climate Policy
Policy Documents
📋 14th Five-Year Plan for Energy (2021-2025)
The foundational document establishing energy intensity reduction targets and renewable energy goals for the current plan period.
- Source: State Council of China (2021)
- Key target: 13.5% energy intensity reduction over 5 years
📋 "Dual Carbon" Goals — The 2030/2060 Commitment
Premier Li Qiang's 2021 government work report formally enshrining carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060 as national policy.
- Source: Government Work Report (March 2021)
- Significance: First time dual carbon goals appeared in government work report
📋 Action Plan for Carbon Peaking Before 2030
State Council directive (Sept 2021) outlining sector-by-sector actions to peak emissions before 2030, including the "1+N" policy framework.
- Source: State Council (Sept 2021)
- Framework: "1+N" = 1 overall plan + N sectoral plans
Databases and Data Sources
🔹 China's National Emission Trading System (ETS)
World's largest carbon market by covered emissions. Currently covers only the power sector.
- Website: cces.cn
🔹 IEA China Energy Outlook
IEA's comprehensive scenario analysis of China's energy system through 2050, including energy intensity projections under different policy assumptions.
- Website: IEA China
🔹 China Energy Data (CEIC)
Comprehensive Chinese energy data including provincial breakdowns of energy production, consumption, and intensity trends.
- Website: ceicdata.com
News and Analysis Sources
🔹 Climate Action Tracker (CAT)
Independent scientific assessment of national climate policies and their projected impact on global warming. China is rated "Highly Insufficient".
- Website: climateactiontracker.org
🔹 Carbon Brief
UK-based climate science and policy analysis. Regular deep-dives on China's carbon trajectory and policy developments.
- Website: carbonbrief.org
🔹 China Dialogue
English-language platform focusing on China's environmental policy and its global significance. Published by Grantham Research Institute.
- Website: chinadialogue.net
