Deep Dives and Extended Analysis
Carbon Intensity Measurement Methodologies
"The Politics of Baseline Selection in Chinese Climate Targets" — This analysis from Oxford's Environmental Change Institute examines how baseline years are chosen and how excluding certain components (like carbon sinks) affects reported reduction rates. See related section on why the 2015-2022 baseline matters.
CBAM and Trade Policy Impacts
"China's Export Exposure to EU Carbon Pricing" — A detailed breakdown from the European Climate Foundation shows how CBAM phases in across sectors, with particular focus on steel, aluminum, and cement. The analysis projects ~50 megatonnes of Chinese exports will be subject to EU carbon pricing by 2026.
Renewable Energy Construction Pipeline
"China's Renewable Build-Out: 2024-2026" — Rystad Energy tracks current construction rates and confirms that the 70% renewable electricity target for 2026 is achievable. The report details wind and solar capacity additions needed to meet this goal.
Data Center Energy Demand Analysis
"Digital Infrastructure and Grid Stress in China" — This paper from Tsinghua University examines how data center growth affects grid stability and renewable integration challenges. It explores the tension between digitalization and decarbonization goals.
Broader Transition Context
"China's Coal Dependence: 2026 Outlook" — A comprehensive analysis from the International Energy Agency discusses why coal remains dominant (55-60% of power mix) and the political economy barriers to faster phase-out.
Carbon Market Liquidity Studies
"China's ETS: From Pilot to National Scale" — BloombergNEF tracks trading volumes, price formation mechanisms, and market liquidity trends. The report shows how the ETS has evolved from regional pilots to a national system covering 4 billion tonnes of CO2.
Last updated: July 15, 2026