References
Primary Sources
State Council of China — 14th Five-Year Plan for Energy (2021) establishes the binding target of reducing energy intensity by 13.5% over the five-year period (2021-2025), with the annual average improvement rate set at approximately 5.5%. This remains the governing framework for 2026 carbon intensity calculations.
National Energy Administration (NEA) — China Energy Investment Report 2025 documents that renewables surpassed 2,200 GW of installed capacity by end-2025, representing roughly 63% of total power generation capacity. The report also notes the growing curtailment challenge and the accelerating pace of renewable deployment exceeding grid infrastructure buildout.
MEE — Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of Key Industries Report provides the sectoral breakdown: power generation accounts for approximately 51% of China's total CO2 emissions, cement for 15%, and steel for 13%. Together, these three sectors represent roughly 79% of industrial emissions and are the primary targets for the carbon intensity reduction pathway.
IEA — Key Questions on Energy and AI (2026) reports that China's data center electricity demand grew to approximately 100 TWh in 2024, with projections to reach 275 TWh by 2030. This 170% increase represents a significant headwind for carbon intensity targets, as data centers are largely powered by grid electricity that, while increasingly green, still carries a substantial fossil fuel component in many provinces.
Policy Documents
Ministry of Ecology and Environment — "1+N" Policy Framework for Carbon Peaking outlines the sector-by-sector decarbonization pathway. The power sector component ("1") sets the baseline for coal phase-down, while industry-specific plans ("N") address cement, steel, petrochemicals, and other emission-intensive sectors with individual reduction commitments.
NDRC — Green Power Trading Mechanism Guidelines (2024 update) established the framework for corporate procurement of renewable energy certificates (RECs) and direct power purchase agreements (PPAs), which became critical tools for meeting 2026 targets through market-based mechanisms rather than purely regulatory compliance.
Academic and Research Sources
Carbon Brief — Explainer: How China is Managing the Rising Energy Demand from Data Centres (2026) provides detailed analysis of the geographic distribution of data center growth, the provincial government incentives driving AI infrastructure investment, and the tension between central climate mandates and local economic priorities.
Brookings Institution — The New AI Energy Regulation (April 2026) examines how China's approach to AI energy regulation compares with other major economies, noting China's use of centralized capacity quotas and provincial energy consumption caps as distinct policy tools not widely available in market-based regulatory environments.