Academic and Policy Sources
Academic Research
- Oxford University, 2024 — Carbon intensity measurement methodologies in Chinese provincial targets. Analyzes baseline selection effects on reported reductions.
- National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), 2025 — China's climate policy effectiveness under international pressure. Examines CBAM impact on emissions trajectories.
- Columbia University, 2024 — Baseline manipulation in Chinese climate targets. Documents how excluding carbon sinks inflates apparent ambition.
Policy Documents
- National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) — China's 14th Five-Year Plan on Climate Change. Sets the framework for emissions reduction targets through 2025.
- Ministry of Ecology and Environment — Carbon market expansion plans. Details ETS coverage growth and sector inclusion roadmap.
- International Energy Agency (IEA) — China Energy Outlook 2024. Provides independent analysis of China's energy transition progress.
Industry Reports
- Rystad Energy — Chinese renewable construction pipeline analysis. Confirms 70% renewable electricity target is achievable given current build rates.
- BloombergNEF — China's carbon market liquidity and pricing trends. Tracks ETS trading volumes and price formation mechanisms.
- Goldman Sachs Research — China's green finance landscape. Analyzes policy bank lending patterns and their impact on renewable deployment.
Additional Context
This section provides the foundational research and policy documents that inform the analysis of China's 2026 carbon intensity targets. The sources above represent a mix of academic rigor, government policy, and industry expertise — all critical for understanding the complexity of China's climate ambitions.
Last updated: July 15, 2026