Carbon Capture 2026: Cost Curve Hits Viability Threshold

Overview

Global baseline: ~50Mt CO₂/yr of operational direct air capture and biomass carbon removal capacity exists today across 10+ commercial facilities, led by Climeworks' Mammoth plant in Iceland (4,000 tons/day design), 1PointFive's Stratos project in Texas, and Carbon Engineering-based operations in Canada. The IEA estimates this must scale to 600–900Mt/yr by 2035 to keep net-zero within reach — a 12-18x expansion in under a decade. Current deployment is still less than 0.1% of what the IPCC's 1.5°C pathway requires at gigaton scale, but the trajectory has shifted from "whether" to "how fast."

The big picture: Carb…

Key takeaways

Deep dive

Evidence, definitions, and careful reasoning — with links to primary sources where possible.

References

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